Investment Insights

Suyash Choudhary

The policy today was being looked at for one thing primarily: the RBI’s view and plan with respect to the massively excess liquidity sloshing around in the system since demonetization. The rate stance of neutrality has been well digested and market expected little incremental direction in this regard. Therefore, it is appropriate to start with RBI’s […]

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Suyash Choudhary

Just ‘Coz You See It (Doesn’t Mean It’s There): A Bond Update   We’ve been aligned to the idea of a steepening yield curve for some time now. Our chief reasons behind the expectation have been 2 fold: limited incremental visibility of rate cuts, and higher aggregate duration bond supply (including GOI, states, UDAY). This […]

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Suyash Choudhary

A recap of the past few months   The past few months have been a volatile ride for bonds in India. Bonds got a powerful tailwind from demonetization fuelled optimism with yields sliding in India even as bonds sold off in the rest of the world on the “Trump reset”. Indeed the potential channels of […]

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Suyash Choudhary

The RBI continued its recent streak of shocking markets by not just not cutting interest rates but explicitly shifting its stance to ‘neutral’ from ‘accommodative’. Key takeaways from the policy and the media call afterwards are as follows:   On CPI   1. While CPI has undershot RBI’s ‘5% with upside risk’ expectation, it is largely […]

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IDFC AMC

FY18 union budget walked the talk and performed a fine balancing act – focus on social expenditure and infrastructure without deviating much on the path of fiscal prudence. It is imperative to note the backdrop for the current year’s budget with mounting uncertainties on both global and domestic fronts. With demonetization temporarily disrupting the business […]

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Suyash Choudhary

The budget this year had a number of firsts that included a new and early date of presentation, doing away with plan / non plan classifications, and merging the railways budget with the centre. It also came in the backdrop of recommendations of the NK Singh committee. As the finance minister disclosed, the committee had […]

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Suyash Choudhary

…But Seriously

By: Suyash Choudhary

Indian bonds have continued to fare quite well versus the rest of the world post demonetization, although with significantly more two way volatility. This is partly owing to the fact that incrementally the so-called ‘Trump’ trade’(higher dollar and US yields) seems to have tired out in the near term, as markets await more concrete information […]

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Suyash Choudhary

Fixed Income Themes for 2017

By: Suyash Choudhary

The year gone by started pessimistically but on balance proved to be quite a rewarding one for fixed income. A complete turnaround in RBI liquidity philosophy leading to quantum bond purchase from the market, Rajan and Britain exits triggering expectations of more monetary easing locally and globally, and finally demonetization resetting RBI rate cut expectations; […]

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Suyash Choudhary

The year gone by started pessimistically but on balance proved to be quite a rewarding one for fixed income. A complete turnaround in RBI liquidity philosophy leading to quantum bond purchase from the market, Rajan and Britain exits triggering expectations of more monetary easing locally and globally, and finally demonetization resetting RBI rate cut expectations; […]

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Suyash Choudhary

The RBI policy surprised most in the market, in that not only did the central bank not cut rates (an outcome expected by a minority) but actually came out sounding quite a bit hawkish. Key takeaways were as follows:   1. Growth outlook for the current year is uncertain with the demonetization; especially since there […]

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