Investment Insights

Suyash Choudhary

Introduction   The most important factor in the bond market today is to be able to ascertain whether or how soon the RBI is likely to start hiking interest rates. With every incremental rise in bond yields, the discussion has turned more hectic with the thinking being that the bond market is the early indicator […]

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Suyash Choudhary

The Best Bond Trader Of 2017  

By: Suyash Choudhary

A Summary Of The Year Gone By   The year gone by has been a roller coaster for fixed income. Volatility, which has been a word almost missing in other asset classes this year, has been the hallmark for bonds right through. The positive start to the year was soon disrupted with the RBI changing […]

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Suyash Choudhary

The pains of the bond market are well documented and it is not the intent here to go into much detail. However, some points do need mentioning especially in context of this last phase of a veritable collapse in market sentiment:   1. The biggest impact, in our view, over the past few months has […]

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Suyash Choudhary

Introduction   The bond market has been a stressful place to be over the past few months. As is well known there has almost been a relentless one way move over this time where, if the 10 year bond is taken as the indicator, yields have risen by around 70 bps. A host of reasons […]

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Suyash Choudhary

The RBI kept all rates unchanged in the policy review as was the consensus expectation, while retaining its stance as ‘neutral’. We summarize below the key points from the policy and the media call afterwards:   1. GVA forecast has been retained at 6.7% for the full year, despite Q2 printing lower than that projected […]

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Suyash Choudhary

Introduction   Bond markets have struggled to find their feet for most of the last 3 months. A series of triggers have contributed towards this lack of risk appetite. The global environment, most chiefly the recent sharp rise in oil prices, has definitely contributed. However, as we had detailed in a recent note (please refer […]

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Suyash Choudhary

Bond yields have been on a one way street over the past few months on the back of multiple worries of market participants. Post the recent adjustments, valuations on a standalone basis look fairly compulsive especially since the macro-backdrop for rates doesn’t argue for any large reset given: 1> anemic credit growth, and 2> inflation […]

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Suyash Choudhary

Introduction   To recap, over the past few months we have aligned our thinking on fixed income around a ‘real rate’ framework. The thesis has been that now CPI targets have been broadly achieved for a long period, the discussion should shift towards the appropriate real rate setting. To us, this decision should have been […]

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Suyash Choudhary

Policy days refuse to end these days given that the incremental ‘information’ keeps coming over RBI interactions well into the evening. Thus, apart from a media call in the afternoon, there is a conference call with analysts in the evening as well. The value of these calls is that the RBI team answers questions which […]

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Suyash Choudhary

The RBI kept all rates on hold as was largely expected by the market. However, there was some hope for incremental dovishness in tone and to that extent there is near term disappointment. The key takeaways, in our view, were as follows:   1. RBI has marginally hiked its H2 FY 18 inflation forecast from […]

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